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Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots Tips - Dolphins to go over total points

  • NFL Week 1 game will take place at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro on Sunday (21:25 BST)
  • The Dolphins went 2-1 in the pre-season
  • The Patriots won all 3 pre-season games
  • The Dolphins and Patriots split their two meetings last season
Gillette Stadium
The Patriots welcome the Dolphins in their season opener. (Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)
The Patriots are a much-improved side compared to the one that finished 7-9 last year.

New England spent the offseason adding a few more pass-catchers to the roster in the form of Nelson Agholor and Hunter Henry, while they’re also set to kick off the season with rookie quarterback Mac Jones under center after Cam Newton was cut.

The Pats have been a popular bet to jag a Wild Card spot, or even win the AFC East, but they’ll have their work cut out on Monday against a Dolphins team that matches up very well on paper.

Tua Tagovailoa may eventually be replaced by Deshaun Watson, but for the time being, the former first-round pick will lead the charge in what could be his first full season.

Like most rookies, Tua had good moments and bad moments last year, but it still feels too early to pass judgment on him after only 10 games.

Miami’s defence was also sneaky good last year ranking sixth in fewest points allowed and first in turnovers.

Betting against the Patriots at home is always a risky proposition, so I still like them to win this game. That said, the absence of cornerback Stephon Gilmore could open up numerous windows for Tua to make some plays down the field.

Verdict

Honestly, this is one of the toughest games to pick of the week, but after averaging 25 points a game last year, the 20.5 point total set for the Dolphins looks low.

Best Bet: Over 20.5 Dolphins Total @-109.89 at BetMGM - 1 Unit

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